you. >> sean: tonight, 12 days are all that remain until voters head to the polls until i believe is the most important election in your life time carl rove will be here state of the race. brand new polls are proving that governor mitt romney continues to gain momentum tonight. according to the latest gallup poll among likely voters, romney remains in the lead 50% to 47%. now, historically, no candidate with 50% in a major head-to-head poll this late in the race has lost the election. and when it comes down to the issues, according to a brand new associated press poll, there seems that there is no more gender gap. now, governor romney erased the president's lead over the key voting group women and they are now tied at 47% each. and among independents,

governor romney is surging past president obama, according to a brand new abc "the washington post" poll, the governor is 19 points ahead of the president. that's 57 to 38%. and when it comes to who is better equipped to handle the economy, that same poll reveals that more voters believe that governor romney is and that's 52% to 43%. now, on to the all important swing states. and, according to the latest according to the latest fox news poll in virginia governor romney is leading by two points that's 47 to 45 percent. now the growing surge in nanny demographics could be partly due to the fact that republicans are more energized than democrats. a new pew research poll finds 73 percent of republicans say this election is interesting while only 66 percent of democrats feel that way. the obama campaign can try to spin all of these new polls anyway they want but the numbers don't lie. joining me with reaction and analysis the architect fox news

contributor, karl roaf. how are you? >> you don't need me. you did a terrific job there. that's fabulous. set the stage for your great analysis. you pointed this out in your column today in the "wall street journal." you talk about number one, the state of the race. let's go through this first of all start with the national polls, gallup, abc news, "the washington post." same. >> another way to look at this is this way. as of 5:00 tonight in the last week there have been 35 national polls in seven days between the 18th and 25th. president obama was at or above 50% in one governor romney was at 55%. if you average them all together it's 48/3. in 2008, president bush in the same period, in the same methodology was about 3 points ahead. if you look at real clear politics today, the average

was 47.9 romney, 47 obama. that was a tick down for president obama. and a tick up for governor romney. look, we are close to the election. and absent some major episode, some big inflection point, it's going to be awfully hard to change the direction of it president obama is more trouble than those numbers might indicate. look, if you are the incumbent president you have got to be at or above 50%. the undecides at the end are unlikely to break towards you. close race like, this every bit of evidence we have got is that the president's detractors are more energized than supporters are. particularly supporters in the latino and among the 18 to 29-year-old voters. they are just not enthusiastic at all about him. the president has got to get himself up above 50 and the strategy that he has adopted i think is unlikely to get him there. >> sean: we will get to that you mentioned that in your column today. first of all started with some of the swing states. how confident are you that

florida north carolina, indiana, they turn blue to red. >> i would add virginia into that as well. republicans are well poised to take colorado and new hampshire today. >> and florida? florida, north carolina and virginia are in the republic camp and becoming more so virtually every day and particularly if you take a look at the early vote in florida. banking more votes but banking more people less likely to vote. that is to say more of the democrat early vote in most of these states. ohio for example, 42% of the early vote that the democrats are banked are people who have voted in three out of the last four elections. those are the people who are going to vote no matter what. what you want to be focused on is you want to be focused on the people more spore roddick voters. people voted in zero, 1 or 2 not three out of four.

>> sean: how is governor romney trending in the early vote in ohio. >> better. some of these major counties, huge turn around in the number of early votes cast by republicans compared to where they were four years ago and a decline for the democrats. now, that's on top of the fact that we had a huge decline, several hundred thousand people taken off the voter roles, names taken off the voter roles as not voters. mostly in the democrat parts of the state. significant number in the northeastern part of the state centered on cuyahoga county, cleveland, that were taken off the voter roles. so, you know, ohio is tight in the poles but, again, my sense is that we're likely to see a romney victory in the state because the momentum is with him. his people are more energized. and the president has got a lousy message here at the end and romney has got one that's optimistic, upbeat and forward looking. >> sean: that's a state everybody has been talking about ohio it is 47-47 right now in the latest polls.

early voting trends information and history. all of the models they have been using pollsters a lot of them are going back 2008. i don't see a model emerging again in 2012. do you? >> i don't want to say it's done and quick it's not. it's going in the right direction. it's going in the right direction warning sign would be in early voting if it got anything close to 2008. if you take a look in an early vote extrapolate obama moving down 2 or 3 points republicans moving it up two or three points this is a state obama won by 4 percent. if you have him trending down a points as opposed to mccain you have a state likely to end up in the republican column. >> sean: if romney were to win florida, north carolina, virginia, colorado, and new hampshire, that brings him to 261 electoral votes. >> 261 and he takes ohio and it gets him to 276.

>> sean: over the hump. did you ever think michigan would be dead even now? we have got a poll that shows michigan even. wisconsin is dead even. a couple of polls now that have come out of pennsylvania that show pennsylvania is competitive. let me also play for you what governor ed rendell, former governor of pennsylvania said about pennsylvania. governor of pennsylvania said. >> maybe they figure our time collapses republicans still tush out well and they speneak throu the finish line. do you see wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania do you see them as tossup states as some of these polls show? show? >> i think they are in the category of battle grounds. i would say that the race is more favorable to governor romney in states like florida, virginia, colorado, new hampshire. colorado new hampshire and the race is more of a tossup in states like iowa, nevada, wisconsin, ohio.

the question is do you have enough time do you have enough money? governor romney had a good first 17 days of october raising $118 million. the question is inside the headquarters in boston they are trying to figure out how do we deploy these resources to put these states away and keep the momentum going and that requires expenditure money and more importantly the expenditure of the candidate's time. the biggest determinant assuming they have equal amounts of money spending on equal amounts of television it comes down to two things the quality of the message and second where you put the candidate. the biggest -- >> explain that. >> the biggest impact you have assuming the television wars are rough roughly owe quall levels comes down to how often is the candidate there? it helps them break through all kinds of media and gives them a chance to be up close and personal then the quality of the message. i think president obama is making a fundamental mistake.

look at the ads up this week. the ads are mostly a tax on governor romney. then had big ad by filling in a plan. romney has a pretty good solid message. the country is in difficult shape. i have a plan to do something about it. i was able to get things done. >> super bowl time game on. get those pads on. >> yes, sir. >> coming up tonight. >> you don't deserve a bunch of name calling you don't deserve a bunch of mud slinging. >> that was candidate obama 2008. i guess those words meant nothing because the president just hurled the most offensive characterization of mitt romney to date. and we are going to tell you what the president's civil discourse was all about. we will check in with former

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there's a united states of america. you don't deserve a bunch of name calling. you don't deserve a bunch of mud slinging. you don't deserve a bunch of internet rumors and scandal mongering. if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale taxes to scare voters. if you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from. >> that was senator obama's message to voters before the 2008 election. but over the course of the past four years the either gone through a dramatic transformation or he wasn't telling us the truth while he was running for office. nowadays all he sees are red states and blue states. all we hear are distortions about romney's record. to be sure the president is doing plenty of name calling out there on the campaign trail. as a matter of fact during a recent interview with rolling stones magazine he called mitt romney a quote bser. only he said the actual word.

here is reaction to the r rated president's brand new tone of desperati desperation. former new hampshire governor one man romney supporting recognizing crew john sinunu and bill richardson former owe bam paw supporter. i listen to this what are we hearing about? hearing about binders, big bird. bayonets, romnesia, anything but obama's record of 6 trillion in debt, 25 million employed 22 million americans needing food stamps, 29 million americans on food stamp and 6 americans in poverty in america. what happened to president civility? where did he go? >> look, that moment of using the bs word was kind of a self defining moment for the president. no class. wants to be cool. sacrifices being -- the dignity of the presidency for appearing

cool to a magazine that works for some of his bait. i think it really hurts him. i think when people realize he screwed up the economy and tried to rebuild it he wants to cut defense and now he is clearly not the guy want as a role model for your kids and grand kids. the president is beginning to panic. >> this is beneath the dignity of the office. big bird, roneshia, bsing. isn't that beneath the office of the governor? >> right now look i want to see my friend john get out of this one. colin powell -- >> governor wait a minute. i asked you a question. the president of the united states that was a message to a 6-year-old girl that mitt romney is a bser. this is a guy who said when you don't have big ideas you start

smearing people. your campaign accused romney of murder. >> there has been negativism on both sides. this is the last 10-days of the campaign. >> this class warfare this guy has tried to create some racial divide: >> he said he is endorsing president obama because he revived and moved the economy forward he got us out of iraq has bringing our troops home has a plan for the economy. he is a moving target. >> colin powell is doubling down on the mistake he made in 2008.

his endorsement probably makes sure that alma votes for him. the fact is what we have is a failed -- >> john get out of that endorsement. >> let me get back to my point. >> the guy he worked for george herbert walker bush is the most respected man in the country. george herbert walker bush is solidly mitt romney. don't give me your lines off the obama talktoo. you are too good a man to go that route. we have a serious problem in this country and a president that is so distracted that he is running around to all of the evening shows because that's the only place he can put out his venom and his lies and get a receptive audience. it is time that we got down to the big issues. we have an economic problem, he has no plan. we have a national security problem, he has no plan. we have a dead ambassador in benghazi and he is lying about

it. it is time we got the serious issues with at least 12 days before the election. >> john, how many more positions is governor romney going to switch on? is he going to endorse obama care next week? every position he is shifting. he's moving to the middle so fast. >> he hasn't shifted. he's a budget cutting tax cutting governor. he's a budget cutting tax cutting candidate. he has always believed in a strong defense. he is supporting rebuilding our navy and our military and giving our young men and women. mitt romney has been a pro-life governor and he is a pro-life candidate now. mitt romney stood for dealing in an empathetic way where people have needs and it is a classic example for everybody who has empathy of those in need. it is a distortion of words by

the obama campaign. >> let me ask you, do you think when the president's campaign goes out there and accuses mitt romney being responsible for a women's death of cancer do you think this crosses a line? do you think when president obama himself says that mitt romney, his plan is for dirty air and for dirty water? you think the ads of paul ryan throwing granny over the cliff? i argue this is the nastiest meanest campaign i have ever seen. you say well the final ten-days of the campaign. any of this embarrass you? does any of this embarrass you and shouldn't the president be focused on getting jobs for people, getting rid of the $6 trillion in debt he's accumulated? >> listen, this is the end of the campaign this happens every four years. negativism on both sides.

>> we are ready guy ahead. >> i don't want to embarrass him. >> the last ten-days, president was in 8 states in two-days. it is all going to come out to turn out. this is where i think the democrats there's nobody -- >> you don't want to talk about the negative i am of this campaign. you don't want to talk about the shallowness of the campaign. you don't want to talk about a president who said it's not about blue america the united states of america. you don't want to talk about a president who lectured this country and is now not being civil. >> this president wants to bring the country together. >> by saying mitt romney is a bser? >> he has created more racial division than any other administration in history. >> i have to take a break. media bias our example coming up.

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>> governor i have a specific question governor richardson. are you saying president i civility i am going to cut the deficit in half by my first term i have shovel ready jobs the one who gave us 6 trillion in debt few americans working and 1 in 6 americans in poverty. are you saying to the american people that we are better off than we were four years ago? >> yes, i am. i am also saying here's the agenda for the second term. 1 million manufacturing jobs. two, the training of 100,000.

number three. cut oil imports energy independence and four pair down the debt, build infrastructure. >> it sounds like he plagiarized that from romney. the newspaper of the auto capital of the world endorsed mitt romney. although they said they preferred obama's bailout bankruptcy to romney's plan they pointed out to the auto industry, the workers and the management that they have a choice for the future. they can go with a president obama who loves big government and big government medaling in the auto industry, or they can go with someone who loves the auto industry and will shield them from the medaling of the bure raaucrats and regulators o the future someone who grew up

in the auto industry like mitt romney. >> john, you shouldn't have brought that up. governor romney was against the auto bailout. he basically said -- >> he had a plan that was different. you are out. >> you guys have been lying about that. >> how can you brag about that? the president saved the auto industry. everybody in michigan gets a -- gives him credit. >> what governor romney is totally reversed himself in the last debate on the auto industry. he was against it. now he is trying to recover by saying he felt that they should go through bankruptcy. oo governor sununu we are running out of time. >> he supported bankruptcy and eventual support from the federal government after the bankruptcy. that's the past. that's the past.

>> that's the last position, john. you shouldn't have brought that up. that was bad thing to bring up. >> why don't you you shut up for a minute and let me tell you facts. what the industry ought to be looking at is going forward with somebody that doesn't tell gm to build an electric car that they can't sell but somebody who understands the auto industry ought to be run and supported with workers and management that love the auto industry. >> guys we have to end it there. by the way gm and gmac 50 billion tax payer dollars that will not be paid back. nobody brings up that part of the equation. governors thank you for being with us. when we come back media mash coming up next. eric bowling and kimberly guilfoyle are all here to discuss the president's pit stop on late night tv and as our commander-in-chief put his priorities on display. in the process he made it very clear why he is incapable of fixing the economy. we are going to play you what he said. it's very troubling and a very

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>> joining us to go through this week's material none other than the president of the media research certainty the one and only brent bozel. how are you? >> it was interesting. you could tell that obama's in trouble because the left is unhinged. there's no better person to go to than the guy who has a thrill up his leg and the entire body. our good friend chris matthews. i am going to play back-to-back clips here. despite all of the evidence benghazi was not spontaneous not related to a youtube movie trailer he says otherwise. he also suggests that romney voters were motivated what,

racial hatred. watch these. >> romney, you have one more romney. romney. >> cover up scandals in the middle east. >> what was the scandal covered up? >> benghazi. >> what was the scandal? >> what was the scandal? >> there was a video, it was not about the video. >> everyone knows it's all about the video. thank you very much. >> they hate obama. they want to go out to the white house as much as they want to destroy al qaeda. the number one thing is hatred for obama. we could go into that about the white working class and the south and looking at the numbers we are getting the last couple days about racial hatred this isn't about being a better president. they want to get rid of this president. >> this is now nbc news is completely and utterly unhinged. should we -- could we int the pr -- interpret that as they think his guy is going to lose? >> they are panicked. chris matthews is delusional.

he is delusional. for him to claim this is about a video and bully and bully a young guy about that, it is clearly, clearly dishonest. he knows it's not about a video. then the second thing about this racial hatred the narrative was this was anti woman, a war of women. that one isn't apparently winning any more. they come up with a completely concocted racial hatred. completely concocted. because kris matthews doesn't offer sintila of evidence. there isn't any evidence to back up that charge. i will say it on national television chris matthews you have become an unmitigated liar. comcast which owns msnbc is enabling and you have hired and you are paying the payroll of an unmitigated dishonest man. >> it is kind of sad. i mean we will get into it another day. the media is so trying to defend

obama. i say journalism died in 2008. here president obama says that america has become arrogant. he says that we were guilty of torture. three people gotten hansed interrogati interrogation. three. which led to the decision, which led to the intelligence to get bin laden which allows the president to spite the football even though he couldn't show the body of a dead bin laden. he said that america is not following, did not follow its values, et cetera, et cetera. we chronicled the values all night. >> any glaring misstatements by the candidate? >> one was mitt romney repeated what he said before the president went on an apology tour when he became president. we looked at all of the speeches the president didn't apologize for america he did acknowledge the mistakes the united states made. there's no way you can call it an apology tour. >> in none of these speeches in the mid eels or here at home did

president obama use the word apology or say he is sorry. our verdict is it is false to call the president's speech an apology tour even if he was critical of past u.s. foreign policy he issued no apology. >> america has been arrogant. america lost its values. america is guilty of tour tour. he could have told the world about america's sacrifice in kuwait, iraq, afghanistan, indonesia kosovo and all of these other muslim countries. could have extolled the greatness virtues and sacrifice for the cause of freedom. but gnaw. >> sean, this is to the french. there have been times where america has shown arrogance and been dismissive. this is what he told the muslims. we sometimes make mistakes we have not been perfect. this is what he told latin america. united states will be willing to acknowledge past errors where those errors have been made. folks that's an apology tour. >> let's get to this hard hitting interview. you know it's interesting when you get opinions from these

anchors welcome to nbc news, i am brian williams and he spent two-days out on the campaign trail with barack obama. here's part of my hard hitting interview. >> how is it that was what 13 days to go you are fighting for your life in a 47-47 race? so after the excitement of 08 given the power of income ben see you got bin laden you did not expect to be sitting on a more substantial race than we are as we sit here today? >> i can't believe you are losing, can you believe you are losing? >> this is reverse shock and awe. in 2008 it was all about awe hail to the messiah. in 2012 it is shock. they really don't understand us. they are in shock right now. >> for all of us at nbc news, good night.

>> thank you very much. brent bozel appreciate you being with us. >> a brand new obama ad that simulates it to a voter's first sexual encounter. eric poly kimberly guilfoyle next. while deafening silence from the president in response to donald trump's very generous proposal. mr. president take the money you can redistribute the donald's wealth. the president tells jay leno which school subject it is that is his achilles heal. it explains his $6.04-year spending spree. what's truly amazing about mercedes new mbrace2 system... is i can follow all my sports... catch the latest breaking news... keep in touch with friends... follow the financial headlines... find a great restaurant... and with siriusxm i can get weather forecasts... all from here. in my mercedes-benz. [ male announcer ] introducing mbrace2. the most comprehensive

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>> transparency and the word of law will be the tone of this president. >> donald trump offers him

$5 million for a charity of his choice in exchange for his passport and records. he is silent. he has something to hide something against charity? i suggest mr. president take the $5 million and you can redistribute the wealth of donald trump's money. with reaction we talk about the co-teachers host of the five kimberly guilfoyle and eric foley. the fact that the media was so in attack mode against donald trump makes me like him more. his college transcripts applications passport records and applications $5 million to charity for kids. i am like, why would any one be against that? why was the president just dismiss that. >> only if you are a mean spirited person that doesn't want to be charitable. he loves other people's money.

>> cheap skate joe biden doesn't give any charity. >> 360 bucks a year for the last ten years. >> donald is a very good friend of mine. my problem is there are 12 days left to vote to decide who you want to vote for. donald trump would be better served talking about some of the things that are really going on in the economy. shawn, president obama is annihilating the poor and the middle class. he is doing it by printing a lot of money. they print over a trillion dollars. they take interest rates in zero by the poor. >> we got the karl rove -- the bigger than karl rove. >> the poor get ruined because prices go up. you print a lot of money gas goes up food goes up. people who have investments in bonds 6 or 7 years longer than they thought. retirees are getting crushed because they are on fixed incomes which are tied to interest rates when the interest rates are zero they make no money. >> this is a big one. >> unfunded liability bombed. they are all tied to interest

rates. when interest rates are low the banks get rich. >> you were right on every one of those points. iveng we can walk and chew gum. there's a challenge here. he is reluctant to show a glimpse into his past. why would you reject 5 million in charity when he has to do is say get my college records. >> they have money to hide and conceal. it's a hypocrisy presidency. there has been nothing transparent about it. >> this is a new ad called girls. >> you watch it. i don't.

>> i will let the viewers decide. i think it crosses a line. >> you want to do it with a great guy. it should be with a guy that is beautiful someone that cares about and understands women. a guy who cares whether you get health insurance, specifically whether you get birth control the consequences are huge. you you don't want a guy who doesn't the troops he is not filling the lilly ledbetter act or thinks bay people should never have complicated weddings like the kind we see on bravo and tlc. who are you voting for. i don't want to tell you. they go guess. think about how you want to spend the four years in college age time that's 150 years. super uncool to be out and about when you say did you vote? i wasn't ready. my first time voting was amazing. it was a line in the sand before i was a girl now i was a woman. i went to the polling station i pulled back the curtain, i voted for barack obama. >> who would you want to do it

with. so the guy that gives me free, free, free, free healthcare, free birth control, by the way, the ledbetter issue, that was -- we have laws in the book equal pay. that's not a misnomer. how far have we come from ask not what your country can do for you what you can do for your country. give me healthcare and birth control. >> it becomes gift to give up what you have for free. it's a set of a handout. what are we doing here this isn't the right message. what about entrepreneur ship free market and capital i am. this is completely a distraction. >> any question why the momentum is on romney right now? the only thing president president has had lately are

bayonet bayonets,>> big bird in binders and now romnesia. >> i have a new term obama noma. he is such a cancer to the economy he threatens the whole system. >> this is the guy to work with him. this is obama for america putting out this ad. >> it is a horrible ad. >> you are right it's about superb lis issues 6 trillion in debt, 17 million more people. >> 369,000 new applications. >> this is what's coming. if we don't get a serious person this is the future. >> can i say something, sean. this is a man who says he's for the middle class and the poor. he says it one way and everything he has done has trashed the middle class. >> also by the way women single and married the gap has closed. they hear about jobs not

freebies. >> $9 a month. $9 a month. the world is getting sicker and sicker. >> thanks, sean. next the president gives jay leno a very revealing interview. let's say after you hear some of the comments you will not only be completely troubled but you will finally understand how he is able to spend $6 trillion of this is america. we don't let frequent heartburn come between us and what we love. so if you're one of them people who gets heartburn and en treats day after day... block the acid with prilosec otc and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero hearurn. sven's home security gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! how does this thinwork?

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>> have you ever wondered why the president has had such a difficult time balancing the budget the answer before he was appearing watch this. >> when you help your daughters what do you struggle with. >> the math stuff i was fine with up until about 7th grade. >> yeah. >> but malia is now a freshman in high school and i am pretty lost. >> it is tough. >> that might explain why he is so reluctant to release his college transcripts why he is avoiding real media outlets. leno appearance he takes an interview with inside edition. set to air on friday. the first lady he is providing coverage with on abc. jimmy kimmel that will be a barn

burner glad to see everybody is in order real tough interviews, mow. >> it is on the view. wasn't it? >> mrs. romney was on the view kelly and michael. >> it was by me i need to meet with he was they were counting on mitt romney. they were counting on mitt romney. it was the heist like ability

mitt romney was close in like ability. those debates came off as sconeding. >> tonight's abc news. the female vote has levels as well. >>ive three polls gallup, abc news, "washington post". 50, 47 romney. that doesn't go to the electoral college. his like ability has gone down it was in 0sh2008 that has to b concerning for your side. no question it has tightened up. no question there was momentum after the first de>> i think the stabilization particularly in the states. at the end of the day that is going to matter. we are not being much more of a

romney surge in north carolina. >> in florida it is comfortably romney same with virginia. >> it is dead even. it told me within the margin of error. >> it is a ground game. >> the ground game is going to be important. >> he closed the gap in ohio significantly as well. he had a much more significant lead there. >> he has narrowed the gap but that narrowing seems to have stopped it. if he doesn't ghetto owe he is going to get wisconsin, colorado new hampshire and either nevada or iowa. that's tough to run obama. he introduces anything new. release the booklet. people don't have a reason to be

enthusiastic and getut there. >> what is he going to offer? >> you are rolling your eyes here. what is -- give me specifics of obama's -- what is he going to do in his second term? oo investing in this is going to create more jobs. >> more spending. new energy. >> he's talked about spending millions and we have not >> he spent billions. >> we are more energy dependent -- >> because of private lands. >> i will put -- whether or not you agree with it, sean, i will put on the table that barack obama has laid out a more specific agenda than mitt romney has -- >> but the problem is, his agenda is the same as 2008, which is the reason we have the problems we have right now. he wou